Just by looking at my diagnosed cancer, one can easily imagine that the outlook is grim.
It's true that these are general statistics, and younger individuals in good health tend to have better outcomes. But let's be real—I won’t be around much longer.
Not everyone responds to treatment the same way. I know about the rare cases people bring up as a source of hope, and I appreciate that. But just as there are positive outliers, there are also negative ones.
Survival rates are measured as the 5-year relative survival rate, comparing individuals with cancer to the general population without it.
The 5-year survival rate for stage 4 colon cancer is about 13%.
Personally, I find the median survival time more telling: 22.6 months. This number may have improved over time, but we're measuring in months, not years.
Here are the sources I've gathered so far:
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Relative Survival Rate | 13% | American Cancer Society Colorectal Cancer Survival Rates |
| 5-Year Relative Survival Rate | 15.6% | SEER Program via Metastatic Stage 4 Colorectal Cancer Facts & Survival Rate |
| Median Survival Time (2004-2019) | 22.6 months | 2023 Research Review via Stage 4 Colon Cancer Symptoms, Treatment, and Survival Rate |
| Improved Median Survival (2016-2019) | 32.4 months | Same as above |
| Historical OS Improvement | 12 to 30 months | Epidemiology of Stage IV Colorectal Cancer |
Now that the genetic mutations of my colon cancer have been identified, I have been able to find more specific studies. The outlook is significantly worse, with median survival dropping from 22 to 10 months.
These are the statistical data, but you only need to look a little to find cases of people with this type of cancer who manage to live many more years with a decent quality of life, some even manage to be cured!
I am fully aware that these are exceptional cases and suffer from the logical fallacy of survival bias.
However, these cases are helping me shift my mindset from "I’m facing an irreversible countdown" to "This could become a chronic illness that I can live with."
The difference is huge.